12. Warrants

As of September 30, 2015, warrants to purchase 13,158,571 shares were outstanding, having exercise prices ranging from $0.41 to $1.50 and expiration dates ranging from July 5, 2016 to January 21, 2019.  

 

At September 30, 2015 and December 31, 2014, the average remaining contractual life of the outstanding warrants was 2.5 and 3.2 years, respectively.  

 

The warrants issued to investors in the March 2011, December 2012 and previous offerings contain a provision for net cash settlement in the event that there is a fundamental transaction (contractually defined as a merger, sale of substantially all assets, tender offer or share exchange).  If a fundamental transaction occurs in which the consideration issued consists principally of cash or stock in a non-public company, then the warrant holder has the option to receive cash, equal to the fair value of the remaining unexercised portion of the warrant.  Due to this contingent redemption provision, the warrants require liability classification in accordance with ASC 480 and are recorded at fair value.  The warrants issued to investors in the July 2013, October 2013 and January 2014 offerings contain a fundamental transaction provision, but the warrant holders only have an option as to the type of consideration received if the holders of common stock receive an option as to their consideration.  In addition, the warrants issued in the July 2013, October 2013, January 2014 and previous offerings contain a cashless exercise provision that is exercisable only in the event that a registration statement is not effective. That provision may not be operative if an effective registration statement is not available because an exemption under the U.S. securities laws may not be available to issue unregistered shares.  As a result, net cash settlement may be required, and the warrants require liability classification.

 

ASC 820 provides requirements for disclosure of liabilities that are measured at fair value on a recurring basis in periods subsequent to the initial recognition.  Fair values for warrants are determined using the Binomial Lattice (“Lattice”) valuation technique. The Lattice model provides for dynamic assumptions regarding volatility and risk-free interest rates within the total period to maturity. Accordingly, within the contractual term, the Company provides multiple date intervals over which multiple volatilities and risk free interest rates are used. These intervals allow the Lattice model to project outcomes along specific paths that consider volatilities and risk free rates that would be more likely in an early exercise scenario.

 

Significant assumptions are determined as follows:

Trading market values—Published trading market values;

Exercise price—Stated exercise price;

Term—Remaining contractual term of the warrant;

Volatility—Historical trading volatility for periods consistent with the remaining terms;

Risk-free rate—Yields on zero coupon government securities with remaining terms consistent with the remaining terms of the warrants.

 

Due to the fundamental transaction provision, which could provide for early redemption of the warrants, the model also considers the probability the Company would enter into a fundamental transaction during the remaining term of the warrant. Because the Company is not yet achieving positive cash flow, management believes the probability of a fundamental transaction occurring over the term of the warrant is unlikely and therefore estimates the probability of entering into a fundamental transaction to be 5%.  For valuation purposes, the Company also assumes that if such a transaction does occur, it is more likely to occur towards the end of the term of the warrants.

 

The significant unobservable inputs used in the fair value measurement of the warrants include management’s estimate of the probability that a fundamental transaction may occur in the future.  Significant increases (decreases) in the probability of occurrence would result in a significantly higher (lower) fair value measurement.

The following table summarizes the fair value of the warrants as of the respective balance sheet dates:

 

The following table summarizes the number of shares indexed to the warrants as of the respective balance sheet dates:

 

 

 

The assumptions used in calculating the fair values of the warrants are as follows:

 

 

 

 

Changes in the fair value of the warrant liabilities, carried at fair value, as reported as “unrealized gain (loss) on fair value of warrants” in the statement of operations: